September and October are traditionally the months when British travellers tend to be more cautious about the Caribbean. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November, with the greatest concentration of activity normally between August and October. The climatological peak is around 10 September. However, so far this year there have been no major storms.
Hurricanes 2026
Why is it so quiet?
The biggest factor appears to be the developing El Niño. It has produced unusually strong vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. In simple terms, winds at different heights move at different speeds and in different directions, making it difficult for tropical systems to organise and strengthen. Dry air and Saharan dust have also halted the thunderstorms needed to develop tropical systems. The combination has been particularly hostile to hurricanes across the area between the Caribbean and the west coast of Africa, where many Atlantic hurricanes originate.
There is an additional factor being investigated: unusually stable air in the tropical Atlantic, which may be contributing to a later and weaker seasonal peak. Scientists are still studying how much of this is a longer-term change versus natural variability.
What is happening right now?
There is one small area which is being monitored east of Bermuda, in which the NHC currently gives only a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and 10% over seven days. Importantly for Caribbean travel, it is not in the Caribbean and is not currently considered a Caribbean threat.
From a holiday perspective, then the autumn of 2026 is looking extraordinary, with no hurricanes to have formed in the Atlantic. Which is great news if you are looking for a break in either September or October – especially helpful for October half term and looking for something outside of the usual Canaries and Egypt that’s a safer bet than the Middle East.
The important caveat is that September and October can still produce Atlantic hurricanes, and a quiet first half of the season does not mean the rest of the season is automatically quiet. Some weather watchers are suggesting the possibility of activity increasing later in September and into October.
We’re Caribbean experts having travelled to all the major islands, and know all the best places to stay. Contact us on 01442 879787, yourdreamholiday@traveltimeworld.co.uk, or visit the office on Berkhamsted High Street.
